Оznobishchev Sergey Konstantinovich – Ph.D. in History, Head of the Division, Military Political Analyses and Research Project, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO) RAS
In the short period of time the European security, which was considered not so long ago as the certain «pattern» for the rest of the world, appeared to be in the situation of the deepest crisis since the end of the Cold War. The long-term ignorance towards the security concerns between Russia and the West which was having place for a long time was deepened by the principal differences in the attitude towards the Ukrainian crisis and, in broader terms, towards the interpretation of the principles of the international law. In a number of years, against the backdrop of deteriorating political relations, it was becoming increasingly difficult to move forward and find even rather simple solutions within the arms control dialogue and confidence building measures in Europe. This resulted in the dead-end in general arms control, including its «European angle». It should be noted that in the first decade of the 21st century, the process of arms limitations and providing security to Europe, became much more dependent, than even in the time of the Cold War, on the state of political relations. Taking this into account, the assessment is provided of the state of NATO–Russia relations, where one may see the attempts to return to the constructive cooperation. Also, against the background of the collapse of the Intermediate-Range Missile Treaty, an analysis is provided of the status of a wide range of both existing agreements and unresolved areas in arms control, as well as confidence measures in Europe, namely of the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe, the Vienna 2011 Document on Confidence and Security-Building Measures, the Open Skies Treaty, the European BMD, the agreement on the tactical nuclear weapons in Europe. Analysis of the state of these areas leads to the conclusion that, despite the «bursts» of alarmist rhetoric, the participants of the European process often seek to demonstrate restraint in their military preparations and do not consider active military confrontation as a realistic scenario. Moreover, attempts to resume a dialogue on security issues and on even broader scale are becoming more and more evident.
NATO – Russia, confidence measures, INF, CFE, European BMD, TNW, European security.
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