Trunov Philipp Olegovich – Ph.D. in Political Sciences, Leading Researcher, INION
The study of German-Polish relations is important for understanding the state of affairs in the Euro-Atlantic community as a whole. The dynamics of the dialogue between Poland and Germany has acquired a new significance in the realities of the current confrontation between the West and the Russian Federation. The author analyzes the influence of the factor of national elections on the interaction between Berlin and Warsaw in the political sphere. In Germany, in 2013 and 2018, following the elections to the Bundestag, a «grand coalition» government was formed with the participation of the CDU/CSU as the leading force and the SPD. In 2021, representatives of the SPD, the FDP and the Union 90/The Greens entered the cabinet of O. Scholz. In the Republic of Poland, as a result of the 2015 parliamentary elections, a coalition led by the Civic Platform was replaced by a one-party government of the «Law and Justice» party («Prawo i Sprawiedliwość», PiS), and after the elections to the Sejm in 2019, «Law and Justice» strengthened its positions. PiS nominee A. Duda was elected president of the RP twice (in 2015 and 2020). The author explores the perception of Polish vector in coalition agreements of the German governments (2013, 2018, 2021) and evaluates the completeness of the implementation of these doctrinal guidelines in practice. The gap between doctrinal and practical levels of these agreements, which has emerged in 2014, began to gradually narrow in 2018–2022. This is largely due to the fact that after «Law and Justice» came to power in Poland, Berlin realized the objective difficulties in establishing productive interaction with Warsaw. The article analyzes the dynamics of the interstate dialogue, the role of the «Normandy Four», the Visegrad Group and the intergovernmental consultations. The approaches of the establishment of Germany and the Republic of Poland to the presence of a «senior partner» in a bilateral dialogue are compared. In this regard, the influence of the US factor, especially during the presidency of D. Trump and then J. Biden, on the development of German-Polish relations is investigated. It is concluded that a modus vivendi in the leadership dispute between Germany and Poland is attainable.
party-political landscape, CDU/CSU, SPD, Union 90/The Greens, coalition agreement, «Law and Justice», confrontation, leadership, the USA, D. Trump, J. Biden.
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