Arzamanova Tatyana Vladimirovna – Leading Editor, INION RAS
The demands of D. Trump towards NATO allies, including Germany, exceed the level of capabilities and competencies that Berlin currently has, which is faced with numerous problems, such as: a government crisis; deindustrialization of the economy, which failed to overcome the consequences of the rejection of Russian energy resources; slowing down the course of the «change of era» (Zeitenwende) and the de facto «objectification» of German politics. The Alliance partners expect Germany, which has been promoting a policy of responsible partnership for years, to take concrete steps to overcome «strategic infantilism»: at least, increasing the level of defense spending above the current 2% of GDP (D. Trump demands that the allies bring this figure to 5%), as well as increasing the capacity of the German defense industry and rising investments in this sphere. The maximum program is Berlin’s taking responsibility for security policy on the continent, taking into account the current crisis on NATO’s eastern borders, which would free the US from «conventional responsibility» for the security of Europe (retaining only the guarantees of the «nuclear shield») reorienting to the Asia-Pacific direction. Against the background of increased pressure on Berlin and the influence of the «Trump effect» on the geostrategic context, the concept of «Europeanization of NATO» is gaining popularity in the German expert community and political circles. This concept implies strengthening of the Franco-German axis; expanding the strategic partnerships with the UK; rising defense spending and the European arms market; strengthening defense cooperation on on bilateral and multilateral tracks. However, in order to achieve success in this direction, Germany needs to overcome the dependence on security imports and to prevail over the noticeable «slippage» of Zeitenwende course, one of the reasons for which, according to the author of the article, was the initially erroneous goal-setting of the «change of era». The article analyzes the reasons for this state of affairs.
NATO, Atlantic solidarity, D. Trump, O. Scholz, F. Merz, Germany, USA, Russia, Ukraine, «change of era» (Zeitenwende), strategic culture, European security.
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