Trunov Philipp Olegovich – Sc.D. in Political Sciences, Leading Researcher, INION RAS
During his first presidential term (2017–2021), D. Trump sought to put pressure on Germany, expressing dissatisfaction with the quality and scope of German support to the American policy. The article analyzes the prospects for bilateral dialogue between the US and Germany after the re-election of D. Trump in November 2024, notes D. Trump’s desire to proactively (and not reactively, as before) counter the system establishment in the US, and points out that electoral support for the largest system parties in Germany has noticeably weakened. Particular attention is paid to examining how far Germany has advanced in the first half of the 2020s towards meeting D. Trump’s demands in the military-political sphere. This process was conditioned, first of all, by FRG’s long-term strategy towards restructuring the system of its global presence in the context of «deterrence» of the West’s opponents. D. Trump’s requests concerning the increase and use of Germany’s power were largely satisfied during the presidential term of J. Biden, whose administration sought to encourage partners to take desirable steps using soft and calibrated forms of influence. The article examines such indicators as the increase of FRG’s military expenditures, the progress of its involvement in the completing of NATO’s groupings, and the transformation of Germany into one of the main military donors for Ukraine. The author suggests that the continuation of these trends, given the caution demonstrated by Germany in providing Kyiv with missile weapons, will find understanding from the new American administration. At the same time, the White House will expect a noticeable tightening of Germany’s approach to «deterrence» of Iran and China. The author concludes that in the second half of the 2020s, the US–Germany dialogue will take the form of «cool» interaction with elements of cooperation.
USA, Germany, Trump, system establishment, NATO, groupings, military expenditures, «deterrence», Russia, China.
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