Trunov Philipp Olegovich – Ph.D. in political sciences, senior researcher, Department of Europe and America, INION RAS, senior researcher, IWH RAS
United Germany significantly increased its influence on the world arena after the end of the «classical» Cold War. The author raises the question of whether the new Cold War will lead to a limitation of the role of Germany in Europe and the world (as in the 1960 s – 1980 s, when the Bonn Republic was led by NATO senior partners) or, on the contrary, will create a«window of opportunity»? The key research methods are comparative analysis and event-analysis. Since 2018, Germany began to increase its military capabilities, including all the quantitative parameters of the Bundeswehr. This process is longterm with a clear division into three stages until the early 2030 s. The increase of Bundeswehr units will be accompanied by their internal reorganization and deep modernization. Germany seeks to become a «framework nation» in the process of creation of NATO Response Force, Forward Presence Force, as well as military groups of the Alliance in Europe in general. At the same time, Germany continues to play an important role in the peacekeeping and military training missions outside the area of NATO responsibility, including missions under the auspices of the UN and the EU. The implementation of these measures will help to strengthen the position of Germany as a parallel to the USA center of political gravity in NATO and in the Euro-Atlantic regional subsystem in general. In this regard, the article analyses the degree of efforts’ coordination between Germany and the USA in the sphere of resolving major armed conflicts and crises situations. The paper traces the tendencies of parallelizing the efforts of both countries, with elements of competition (Ukraine, Mali/Nigeria), as well as increasing independence in German political line (Afghanistan, Syria, Libya, Venezuela). It is concluded that Germany is capable of successfully expanding its influence in the realities of the new Cold War, both in Europe and the world.
Germany, Cold War, Bundeswehr, NATO, Europe, armed conflicts, the USA.
Download text