Artamonova Yulia Dmitrievna – Ph.D. in Philosophy, Associate Professor, Department of History and Theory of Politics, Faculty of Political Science, Lomonosov Moscow State University Demchuk Artur Leonovich – Sc.D. in Political Sciences, Head of Department of Comparative Politics, Faculty of Political Science, Lomonosov Moscow State University; Leading Researcher, Georgy Arbatov Institute for US and Canada Studies RAS
The article attempts to analyze the most significant megatrends of global development (increasing competition in global markets; increasingly stringent requirements for the «environmental friendliness» of goods and services; robotization and digitalization of production processes; widespread implementation of artificial intelligence and neural networks; increasing rates of urbanization; requirements for reducing carbon emissions; focus on the use of renewable energy sources; development of new transport corridors; active exploration of hard-to-reach territories), as well as potential alternative scenarios for global economic, political and social development and the role of Europe in the context of ongoing global processes. The article examines key demographic trends affecting European countries and the related changes in healthcare and pension systems, the impact of climate change on Europe, social problems and the growth of populism. Special attention is paid to the global context of the unfolding megatrends (fragmentation, the formation of a multipolar world, increasing uncertainty and risks in the system of international relations, intensifying competition between states for resources, the crisis of the «rules of the game» that developed in the second half of the 20th century, the crisis of interstate institutions created after World War II, and a decline in the level of trust). The forecasts (scenarios) of global development and the future of Europe in the short and medium terms, proposed by various experts, are also considered, taking into account the need to ensure European strategic sovereignty («strategic autonomy»), emphasized by European authors.
megatrends, scenarios of global development, Europe, strategic sovereignty, international relations.
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