Trunov Philipp Olegovich – Sc.D. in Political Sciences, Leading Researcher, INION RAS
The article analyzes the current and possible future contribution of Germany to the military-political activities of the EU on the global stage. The study is grounded on the theory of armed forces development and scenario prognosing. Based on an analysis of the Bundeswehr’s prospective staffing structure, the article explores Bundeswehr’s ability to simultaneously fulfill large-scale NATO commitments and staff EU missions. It is noted that Bundeswehr contingents participating in EU missions are, in each specific case, aimed at carrying out specific tasks (for example, security sector reform, maritime patrols), relatively small (up to several hundred military personnel) and operate together with crisis response forces, which, in contrast to numerous general-purpose forces, are less involved in NATO groupings. It is also indicated that NATO plays a key role in countering classical security threats (although the EU makes a significant contribution in certain areas, for example, in missions to train Ukrainian Armed Forces), while in countering non-classical threats, on the contrary, the European Union’s contribution is more noticeable. It is emphasized that, from the point of view of the German government, the securitization of the EU agenda is necessary, among other things, to ensure that German citizens support the government’s course towards large-scale militarization of the country. Friedrich Merz’s cabinet succeeded in achieving a certain «normality» in relations with the United States during D. Trump’s second term, and also legally enshrined a similar state of dialogue with the United Kingdom, which contributed to the EU’s overall rapprochement with both of these powers. The article also examines Germany’s role in preparing the rebranding of the EU’s image in the Global South in the context of the EU course on «containment» of Iran and China. It is noted that in the early 2020s, the EU strategic presence in the Global South was significantly reduced, as the EU failed to prove itself as an effective guarantor of peace and security in a number of armed conflicts (primarily in the Sahel). The paper concludes that Germany will consistently pursue a course towards the Europeanization of NATO’s power and the securitization of the EU’s activities, with the importance of the latter in Germany’s foreign policy gradually increasing, especially in the medium term.
Germany, EU, confrontation, NATO, militarization, F. Merz, U. von der Leyen, USA, Trump, UK, post-Soviet space, Ukraine, Global South.
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