Lebedev Sergey Vladimirovich – Ph.D. in Political Sciences, Researcher, Institute of World Military Economics and Strategy, Faculty of World Economy and International Affairs, HSE University. Novik Nikolay Nikolaevich – Ph.D. in Economics, Associate Professor, Faculty of World Economy and International Affairs, HSE University; Associate Professor, International Business Department, Financial University Suslov Dmitry Vyacheslavovich – Deputy Director, Centre for Comprehensive European and International Studies (CCEIS), Faculty of World Economy and International Affairs, HSE University.
The article examines the economic logic of US President Donald Trump’s foreign policy and its impact on the transformation of transatlantic relations, the collective security system, and Russia’s strategic positioning in the context of the redefinition of US global priorities. The authors proceed from the hypothesis that D. Trump’s foreign policy course does not represent a deviation from traditional American strategy, but rather an institutionalized form of «economic realism», within which international institutions and alliance commitments are subordinated to national interests and pragmatic redistribution of costs. Based on an analysis of political documents, D. Trump’s public statements and practical decisions from 2017 to 2025, the study identifies several key elements of this approach: an anti-Chinese agenda as a system-forming factor of US foreign policy; a demand for the greater financial participation of NATO allies in supporting the bloc’s activities; selective support for Ukraine; and the use of tariff, sanctions, and regulatory instruments to achieve geoeconomic objectives. It is noted that such a policy contributes to the erosion of the classical «liberal world order» and to the emergence of a new multipolar system based on global competition, where financial and economic pressure becomes a key foreign policy instrument of influence. The article concludes by showing that the new configuration of transatlantic relations opens up new opportunities for Russia, but also entails risks that require a reassessment of strategic priorities. A conceptual framework of «adaptive deterrence» is proposed, including strengthening nuclear potential, diplomatic rhetoric of de-escalation, and engagement with divisions among Western political elites. The study integrates the methodological approaches of neorealism and political economy, drawing on empirical analysis of international developments and doctrinal sources.
Donald Trump, Europe, the United States, US foreign policy, Ukraine, NATO.
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