Manoilo Andrei Viktorovich – Sc.D. in political sciences, leading researcher, Department of Europe and America, INION RAS, professor, Lomonosov Moscow State University Strigunov Konstantin Sergeyevich – analyst, weekly business analytical magazine «Expert»
The article is devoted to the study of the current state of the political crisis in Venezuela and the ability of the current leadership of the country to keep the situation under control. It is noted that the situation in Venezuela is moving along the path of the gradual transition of the country to external control by the United States, although the chavists led by N. Maduro and their political allies (Russia and Cuba) are making efforts to slow this process. Particular attention is paid to new technologies for organizing «color revolutions» (which gave rise to the so-called «Venezuelan precedent») and the negotiations in Oslo and Barbados (conducted between representatives of N. Maduro and J. Guaido without Russian participation) the alleged goal of which is the gradual «surrender» of the Bolivarian regime by the ruling elite of Venezuela in exchange for guarantees. It is noted that these negotiations pose a high risk of dismantling the chavist regime through the organization of early presidential elections in Venezuela under US pressure. The role of the head of the Constituent National Assembly D. Cabello, whose representatives are not involved in the negotiations, is separately considered. Recommendations are given on coordinating the actions of the Russian side with the Cuban leadership, which is extremely interested in maintaining the power of the chavists.Based on an analysis of the domestic situation in Venezuela, it was concluded that, for Moscow and Havana, D. Cabello is the most optimal candidate with whom it makes sense to build relations in the situation of a split within the chavists. Also, the technology of the «Venezuelan precedent» is extrapolated to Russia. The mechanism of possible application of this technology to Russia and its political leadership is shown. It is concluded that counteracting the dismantling of the chavists may become a development of countermeasures in case such technologies are used against Russia.
Venezuela, «Venezuelan precedent», USA, Russia, Cuba, Maduro, Cabello.
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