Vavilov Andrey Nikolaevich – Ph.D. in Political Sciences, Moscow
The article is devoted to the analysis of current trends in the internal political development of Ukraine. The landslide victory of V. Zelensky in the presidential election was the result of a protest vote, which reflected the request of Ukrainian society for a change in the socio-economic and political course, including the establishment of peace in the Donbass. The factors that ensured the success of V. Zelensky had a decisive influence on the results of the elections to the Verkhovna Rada (Supreme Council). As a result of the presidential and parliamentary elections in Ukraine, the ruling elite underwent a significant update and the prerequisites were created for a «reset» of the power system formed as a result of the 2014 coup, based on the request demonstrated by a significant part of the population. However, granting of this request is associated with objective difficulties and limitations. First of all, in order to break down negative trends in the country's socioeconomic development and ensure the growth of real incomes of citizens, it is necessary to achieve sustainable economic growth. However, the severe socioeconomic crisis, the loss of a significant part of the Russian sales markets, the peculiarities of the economic policy of Kiev, the high debt burden and a number of other factors make it difficult to solve this problem. In addition to economic, the most important restrictions for the new leadership of Ukraine lie in the political field. A significant part of the Ukrainian elite and society remains intransigent in relation to approaches to resolving the conflict in the Donbass. For the most part, Ukrainian society perceives the ideas of federalization, which are actually laid in the basis of the Minsk agreements, as an instrument for the destruction of Ukrainian statehood. In addition, after the 2014 coup, the United States dramatically increased its influence on the domestic political process in Ukraine. Given the fact that the extremely high degree of involvement of external players, primarily Moscow and Washington, remains the hallmark of the Ukrainian crisis, the importance of Ukrainian domestic political factors for the political strategies of Russia and the United States in Ukraine is growing. For Russia, changes in the mood of Ukrainian society, primarily the general «war fatigue», create a «window of opportunity» to mitigate the conflict in Eastern Ukraine and to find ways to gradually normalize relations. For the United States, the task of adapting the policy of using Ukraine as an anti-Russian outpost to the new domestic and socio-economic realities that are taking shape at the beginning of the new Ukrainian political cycle is becoming urgent.
Ukraine, V. Zelensky, Verkhovna Rada, Ukrainian crisis, protest vote, conflict in the Donbass.
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