Khenkin Sergey Markovich – Sc.D. in History, professor, leading researcher, INION RAN, professor, MGIMO (U)
The article aims to give an analysis of the character, national and international conditions of the Catalan conflict development. The aim determined the following objectives: to explain the reasons for the evolution of the Catalan nationalism into separatism; to study the conflict dynamics paying special attention to the unlawful from the point of view of Spanish authorities referendum of region’s independence on October 1, 2017; to explore the alignment of forces in the Autonomy of Catalonia and the approaches of major Catalan and national parties to conflict resolution; to show the orientations of the separatist leaders towards conflict’s internationalization and define the EU attitude to this problem; to determine the hypothetical cost of Catalonia’s exit from EU from the point of view of internal and international conditions. The article shows that a radical turn in the policies of Catalonia’s nationalist parties has occurred in the years of global crisis due to a number of circumstances. The nationalist parties were led by the politicians with firmly separatist standpoints. The majority of them underwent an unexpected transformation from moderate nationalists into the fighters for independence. The separatists persistently demanded from the center to hold an independence referendum. Thus the legal deadlock occurred in the relations between the parties, as per the Constitution the autonomies are not given the right to hold such referendums without the consent of the authorities and a permissive national referendum. The alignment of forces in Catalonia is such that neither separatists, nor unionists can gain a victory. Separatists can not impose their will to the Spanish state, and unionists cannot dismiss the fact that approximately half of the Catalonia’s citizens strive towards independence. The cornerstone of the Catalonia’s problem is the Spanish model of territorial political organization not allowing overcoming the current deadlock in the relations between the center and the autonomy’s authorities. At the moment it is impossible to change the model due to the absence of agreement between the leading parties. The attitudes towards Catalan conflict split Spanish political and civil societies. In the nearest future Spain is destined to live with the in-built destabilizer represented by the rebellious Catalonia.
Catalonia, Spain, European Union, separatism, unionism, independence referendum, People’s party, Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party,
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